Publications
(page now out of action: not maintained since 2005)
Group Publications in 2005:
| Broutin, H., Mantilla-Beniers, N.B., Simondon, F., Aaby, P., Grenfell, B.T., Guégan, J.F., and Rohani, P., (2005) Epidemiological impact of vaccination on the dynamics of two childhood diseases in rural Senegal Microbes and Infection 7 4 593-599 | |
| Russell, C.A., Smith, D.L., Childs, J.E., Real., L.A., (2005) Predictive Spatial Dynamics and Strategic Plannning for Raccoon Rabies Emergence in Ohio. PLoS Biology 3(3): e88 [full article online] | |
| Real,L.A, Russell, C., L. Waller, D. Smith, J. Childs. (2005) Spatial Dynamics and Molecular Ecology of North American Rabies. Journal of Heredity 96,3:1-8. | |
| Xia, Y., Gog, J.R., and Grenfell, B.T. (2005) Semiparametric estimation of the duration of immunity from infectious disease time-series: influenza as a case study Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 54 3 659-672 |
Publications
Group Publications in 2004:
Boni, M.F., Gog, J.R., Andreasen, V., and Christiansen, F.B. (2004) Influenza drift and epidemic size: the race between generating and escaping immunity Theoretical Population Biology 65 179-191 [pdf] |
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Cornell, S. J. and Isham, V. S. (2004) Ultimate extinction of the promiscuous bisexual Galton-Watson metapopulation Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics 46 1 901-912 [in press] |
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Eames, K.T.D. and Keeling. M.J. (2004) Monogamous
networks and the spread of sexually |
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| Fenton, A. & Rands, S. A. (2004) Optimal parasite infection strategies: a state-dependent approach. International Journal for Parasitology, 34, 813-821 | |
Fenton, A., Paterson, S., Viney, M. E. & Gardner, M. P. (2004). Determining the optimal developmental route of Strongyloides ratti: an ESS approach. Evolution 58 989-1000. |
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Grenfell, B.T., Pybus, O.G., Gog, J.R., Wood, J.L.N., Daly, J., Mumford, J.A. and Holmes, E.C. (2004) Unifiying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens Science 303 327-332 [abstract] [full article on science site] |
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Lello, J., Boag, B., Fenton, A., Stevenson, I. R. & Hudson, P. J. (2004) Competition and mutualism among the gut helminths of a mammalian host. Nature 428, 840-844. |
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Russell, C.A., Smith, D.L., Waller, L.A., Childs, J.E., Real, L.A. (2004). A priori prediction of disease invasion dynamics in a novel environment. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. Lond. 271 21-25 [pdf] |
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Savill, N.J. and Seed, J.R., (2004) Mathematical and statistical analysis of the Trypanosoma brucei slender to stumpy transition, Parasitology 128 53-67. |
Group Publications in 2003:
Alexander, N.D., Moyeed, R.A., Hyun, P.J., Dimber, Z.B., Bockarie, M.J., Stander, J, Grenfell B. T., Kazura, J.W.,and Alpers, M.P.(2003) Spatial variation of Anopheles-transmitted Wuchereria bancroftiand Plasmodium falciparuminfection densities in Papua New Guinea Filaria Journal 2:14 |
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Cornell, S.J., Isham, V.S., Smith, G. and Grenfell, B.T. (2003). Spatial parasite transmission, drug resistance, and the spread of rare genes Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA |
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Eames K.T.D. and Keeling, M.J. (2003) Contact tracing and disease control. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270 2565 - 2571 |
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Gog, J. R., Rimmelzwaan, G.F., Osterhause, D.M.E. and Grenfell, B.T. (2003). Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants of influenza A Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 100 11143-11147 [news and views] |
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Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., May, R. M., Davies, G. and Grenfell B. T. (2003) Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease Nature 421 136-142 |
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Norman, R. A., Fenton, A., Fairbairn, J. P. & Hudson P. J. (2003). Mathematical models of insect pest control. In: "Advances in microbial control of insect pests" (Ed. R. K. Upadhyay). Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York. |
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Ovaskainen, O. and Cornell, S. J. (2003) Biased movement at a boundary and conditional occupancy times of diffusion processes J. Appl. Prob. 40 557-580 |
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Park, A.W., Wood, J.L.N., Newton, J.R., Daly, J., Mumford, J.A. & Grenfell, B.T. (2003) Optimising vaccination strategies in equine influenza. Vaccine 21 2862-2870 |
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Rohani, P., Green, C. J., Mantilla-Beniers, N. B., & Grenfell, B. T. (2003). Ecological interference between fatal diseases. Nature, 422, 885-888. |
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Wood, J.L.N., Newton, J.R., Daly, J., Park, A.W., Mumford, J.A. (2003) It's all in the mix: transmission in populations Equine Veterinary Journal 35(6), 526-528 |
Group Publications in 2002:
Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B., Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Dynamics of measles epidemics: Estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series SIR model Ecological Monographs 72 169-184 [download the data] |
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| Brown S.P., Hochberg M.E., and Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Does multiple infection select for raised virulence? Trends Microbiol. 10 (9) 401-405 | |
| Dawes, J. H. P. and Gog, J.R., (2002). The onset of oscillatory dynamics in models of multiple disease strains Journal of Mathmatical Biology 45 471-510 | |
| Eames, K.T.D. and Keeling, M.J. (2002). Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 99 13330-13335. | |
Glass, K., Wood, J.L.N., Mumford, J.A., Jessett, D.M. & Grenfell, B. (2002) Modelling Equine Influenza Infection 1. Epidemiology and Infection 128 491-502 |
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| Gog, J. R. and Grenfell, B.T. (2002). Dynamics and Selection of Many-Strain Pathogens Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 99 17209-17214 | |
| Gog, J. R. and Swinton, J (2002). A status-based approach to multiple strain dynamics Journal of Mathmatical Biology 44 169-184 | |
| Gog, J. R., R. Woodroffe, Swinton, J (2002). Disease in Endangered Metapopulations: The Importance of Alternative Hosts.Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 269 671-676 | |
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. (2002) Dynamics of measles epidemics:Scaling noise, determinism and predictability with the TSIR model. Ecological Monographs 72 185-202 [download the data] |
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| Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Rivers dam waves of rabies Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 99 3365-3367 | |
| Hanski, I. and Ovaskainen, O. (2002) Extinction debt at extinction threshold. Conservation Biology in press. | |
| Hudson, P.J., Dobson A.P., Cattadori, I.M., Newborn, D., Haydon D.T., Shaw, D.J., Benton, T.G. and Grenfell , B.T. (2002) Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 357 1259 -- 1271 | |
Keeling, M.J. (2002) Using Individual-Based Simulations to Test the Levins Metapopulation Paradigm. J. Animal Ecology 71 270-279 |
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| Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2002) Understanding the Persistence of Measles: Reconciling Theory, Simulation and Observation. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 269 335-343 | |
| Keeling, M.J. and Rohani, P. (2002) Estimating Spatial Coupling in Epidemiological Systems: A Mechanistic Approach. Ecological Letters 5 20-29 | |
| Keeling, M.J., Wilson, H.B. and Pacala, S.W. (2002) Deterministic limits to stochastic, spatial models of natural enemies. Am. Nat. 159 57-80 | |
Ovaskainen, O. and Hanski, I. (2002) Transient dynamics in metapopulation response to perturbation. Theoretical Population Biology (in press). |
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| Ovaskainen, O., Sato, K., Bascompte, J. and Hanski, I. (2002) Metapopulation models for extinction threshold in spatially correlated landscapes. Journal of Theoretical Biology, in press. | |
| Park, A.W., Gubbins, S. and Gilligan, C.A. (2002) Extinction times for closed epidemics: the effects of host spatial structure Ecol. Lett. 5 747-755 | |
| Park, A.W., Wood, J.L.N., Newton, J.R., Daly, J., Mumford, J.A., Glass, K. & Grenfell, B.T. (2002). Modelling equine influenza: epidemiology, vaccination, spatial spread and strain variation. Proc. Soc. Prev. Med. Vet. Epidem. 20, 48-60. | |
| Rohani, P., Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2002) The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases Am. Nat. 159 469-481 |
Group Publications in 2001:
Group Publications in 2000:
Group Publications in 1999:
Group Publications in 1998:
Group Publications in 1997:
Balshine, S. and Earn, D.J.D. (1997) An evolutionary model of parental care in St. Peter's fish. J. Theor. Biol. 184, 423-431 |
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| Clayton, L., Keeling, M.J. and Milner-Gulland, E.J. (1997) Bringing home the bacon: A spatial model of wild pig hunting in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Ecological Appl. 7, 642-652 | |
| CluttonBrock, T.H., Illius, A.W., Wilson, K., Grenfell, B.T., MacColl, A.D.C. and Albon, S.D. (1997) Stability and instability in ungulate populations: An empirical analysis. Am. Nat. 149, 195-219 | |
| Earn, D.J.D. and Johnstone, R.A. (1997) A systematic error in tests of ideal free theory Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 264, 1671-1675 | |
| Grenfell, B. and Harwood, J. (1997) (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases Trends in Ecology and Evolution 12 395-399 | |
Keeling, M.J. (1997) Modelling the persistence of measles Trends in MicroBiology 5, 513-518 |
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| Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (1997) Disease extinction and community size: Modeling the persistence of measles. Science. 275, 65-67 | |
| Keeling, M.J., Mezic, I., Hendry, R.J., McGlade,J. and Rand, D.A. (1997) Characterisitic length scales of spatial models in ecology. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 352, 1589-1601 | |
| Keeling, M.J., Rand, D.A. and Morris, A.J. (1997) Correlation Models for Childhood Epidemics Proc. Roy. Soc. B 64, 1149-1156 | |
| Levin, S.A., Grenfell, B., Hastings, A., Perelson, A.S. (1997) Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Population Biology and Ecosystems Science Science 275 334-343 | |
| Rohani, P. and Earn, D.J.D. (1997) Chaos in a cup of flour. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 12, 171 | |
| Rohani, P., Lewis, T.J., Grunbaum, D. and Ruxton, G.D. (1997) Spatial self-organization in ecology: Pretty patterns or robust reality? Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 12, 70-74 | |
| Savill, N.J., Rohani, P. and Hogeweg,P (1997) Self-reinforcing spatial patterns enslave evolution in a host-parasitoid system. J. Theor. Biol. 188, 11-20 | |
| White K.A.J. and Grenfell B.T. (1997) Regulation of complex host dynamics by a macroparasite. J. Theor. Biol. 186, 81-91 | |
| Wilson, K. and Grenfell, B.T. (1997) Generalized linear modelling for parasitologists. Parasitology Today. 13, 33-38 |
Group Publications in 1996:
| Das, P.K., Subramanian, S., Manoharan, A., Ramaiah, K.D., Vanamail, P., Grenfell, B.T., Bundy, D.A.P., Michael, E. (1996) Frequency-Distribution of Wuchereria-Bancrofti Infection in the Vector Host in Relation to Human Host - Evidence for Density- Dependence. Acta Tropica, 60, 159-165 | |
| Grenfell, B.T., Wilson, K., Isham, V.S., Boyd, H.E.G. and Dietz, K. (1996) Modeling Patterns of Parasite Aggregation in Natural-Populations - Trichostrongylid Nematode-Ruminant Interactions as a Case-Study. Parasitology,111, S 135-S 151 | |
| Grenfell, B.T. and Gulland, F.M.D. (1996) Introduction - Ecological Impact of Parasitism on Wildlife Host Populations Parasitology, 111, S 3-S 14 | |
| Michael, E., Bundy, D.A.P. and Grenfell, B.T. (1996) Reassessing the Global Prevalence and Distribution of Lymphatic Filariasis Parasitology, 112, 409-428 | |
| Michael, E., Meyrowitsch, D.W. and Simonsen, P.E. (1996) Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Mass Diethylcarbamazine Chemotherapy for the Control of Bancroftian Filariasis - Comparison of 4 Strategies in Tanzania Tropical Medicine and International Health, 1, 414-426 | |
| Srividya, A., Das, P.K., Subramanian, S., Ramaiah, K.D., Grenfell, B.T., Michael, E. and Bundy, D.A.P. (1996) Past Exposure and the Dynamics of Lymphatic Filariasis Infection in Young-Children. Epidemiology and Infection, 117, 195-201 | |
| Vanamail, P, Ramaiah, K.D., Pani, S.P., Das, P.K., Grenfell, B.T. and Bundy, D.A.P. (1996) Estimation of the Fecund Life-Span of Wuchereria-Bancrofti in an Endemic Area Trans. Roy. Soc. Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 90, 119-121 | |
| White, K.A.J., Grenfell, B.T., Hendry, R.J., Lejeune, O. and Murray, J.D. (1996) Effect of Seasonal Host Reproduction on Host-Macroparasite Dynamics. Math. BioSci. 137, 79-99 | |
| Wilson, K., Grenfell, B.T., & Shaw, D.J. (1996) Analysis of aggregated parasite distributions: a comparison of methods. Functional Ecology 10 592-601. |
