Dr Arman Pili

I distinguish myself through a drive to produce disruptive, interdisciplinary science with lasting societal impact—particularly for underrepresented regions such as the Global South. My current research focuses on developing and applying new analytical frameworks to map global connectivity and explore its applications in biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration, and in land use an urban planning. 

I am especially energized by the challenge of addressing methodological gaps through the creative, lateral application of "withered" or "matured" technologies from other scientific domains, like data science, business econometrics, public health, and social sciences. My skillset spans the full informatics pipeline: from data collection, digitisation, and management to data publishing, analysis, modelling, and implementation.

I work fluently with specialised tools such as connectivity modelling, species distribution modelling, macroecological and biogeographical modelling, individual-based population dynamics modelling (HexSim, RangeShiftR, MadingleyR), trait-based modelling, spatial analysis and modelling, temporal analysis and modelling, and ecological network analysis and modelling. I am also well-versed in general statistical and computational approaches, including machine learning (supervised and unsupervised), missing data imputation (MICE), time-series forecasting, spatial statistics, network modelling, web scraping, and text/sentiment analysis.

Currently, I am integrating my toolkit to create more effective connectivity models, with a focus on the Spatial Absorbing Markov Chain (SAMC) framework.

During my Master’s studies in the Philippines and PhD at Monash University in Australia, I mentored several Honours and graduate students on projects related to the ecology and conservation biogeography of Philippine and Australian reptiles. Five of my mentees successfully published their research in peer-reviewed scientific journals, which reflects my commitment to fostering meaningful, publishable research experiences for early-career scientists.

I am currently the primary supervisor of Mr. Lasse Rauert, a Master’s student in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation at the University of Potsdam. Lasse’s thesis combines macroecological modelling with field experimentation to predict the biological invasion and the ecological impacts of the lionfish (Pterois spp.) in the Mediterranean Sea.

I am open to supervising or co-supervising Honours and Master’s students interested in a range of topics at the intersection of conservation science and policy, particularly in the following areas:

• Simulating invasion dynamics to guide conservation planning
  How can population dynamics models inform efforts to halt the westward spread of lionfish in the Mediterranean? Or the cane toad invasion in the Pilbara region of Western Australia?

• Modelling population dynamics for extinction risk assessment
  Will the critically endangered Ravensthorpe Range slider survive the combined threats of increasing forest fires and climate change?

• Forecasting global biological invasions for proactive biosecurity
  Which alien species pose the greatest invasion risks to the United Kingdom? What native species are at risk to biological invasions? Which regions are most vulnerable?

• Evolution and function of colouration in amphibians and reptiles
  Is colouration linked to species’ morphology, diet, or ecological habits? How does it relate to their geographic distributions? How does this inform us of these group's role in the ecosystem?

• Macroecology and global biodiversity patterns
  Do amphibians and reptiles follow global gradients such as the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient?

• The impact of missing data in biodiversity research
  How do data gaps in traits and distributions affect our understanding of species' macroecology and conservation needs?

Key publications

• Pili, A., Leroy, B., & Zurell, D. (2025). Correcting environmental sampling bias improves transferability of species distribution models. Ecography, e08002.
• Pili, A.N., Leroy, B., Measey, J. G., Farquhar, J. E., Toomes, A., Chekunov, S., Grenié, M., van Winkel, D., Maria, L., Diesmos, M.L.L., Diesmos, A. C., Zurell, D., Courchamp, F., & Chapple, D. G. (2024). Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide. Global Change Biology, 30 (7), e17399  https://doi.org/10.1111/GCB.17399.
• Pili, A.N., Schumaker, N., Camacho-Cervantes, M., Tingley, R. & Chapple, D. G. (2024). Landscape spatial heterogeneity and dynamic environmental conditions are essential predictors of small founding populations’ establishment success. Evolutionary Applications Evolutionary Applications 17(10): e70027. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.70027.
• Pili, A. N., Tingley, R., van Winkel, D., Maria, L., & Chapple, D. G. (2023). The escalating global problem of accidental human-mediated transport of alien species: A case study using alien herpetofauna interceptions in New Zealand. Biological Conservation, 278: 109860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109860 
• Pili, A. N., Tingley, R., Chapple, D. G., & Schumaker, N. H. (2022). virToad: simulating the spatiotemporal population dynamics and management of a global invader. Landscape Ecology, 37(9), 2273-2292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-022-01468-y.
• Pili, A. N., Tingley, R., Sy, E. Y., Diesmos, M. L. L., & Diesmos, A. C. (2020). Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments. Scientific reports, 10(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64568-2 
• Pili, A. N., Sy, E. Y., Diesmos, M. L. L., & Diesmos, A. C. (2019). Island Hopping in a Biodiversity Hotspot Archipelago: Reconstructed Invasion History and Updated Status and Distribution of Alien Frogs in the Philippines. Pacific Science, 73(3), 321-343. https://doi.org/10.2984/73.3.2 

Full list of publications: https://scholar.google.com.ph/citations?user=AmGey8kAAAAJ&hl=en