Dr Thomas Ball

I am an interdisiplinary scientist interested in meeting the needs of a growing population of humans in a way that is least harmful to both people and planet, with a particular focus on the climate and extinction crises.

I combine modelling with global data on the production, consumption, and movement of commodities to understand the impacts of decisions at various scales on the planet - from the consequences of a national agricultural policy down to the impacts of the sandwich you had for lunch. My work is exemplified in manuscript recently accepted for publication in which I examine the impacts of food production and consumption on species extinction risks (Ball et al 2025a). Some of this work is now being utilised as part of an official government toolbox.

I also have a keen interest in our theoretical understanding of the dynamics between human activity and species risks of extinction that drive the impacts of our consumption - to which end I recently lead an exercise in modelling and theory, characterising the relationship between population size and extinction risk (Ball et al 2025b).

Recent publications:

• Ball, T. S., Dales, M., Eyres, A., et al. (2025a). Quantifying the impact of food we eat species extinctions. In press, Nature Food. Manuscript available at: doi.org/10.33774/coe-2024-fl5fk-v2

• Ball, T. S., Balmford, B., Balmford, A., Rinaldo, D., Visconti, P., & Green, R. (2025b). A general relationship between population size and extinction risk. In review. Preprint available at: https://doi.org/10.33774/coe-2024-m9dqp-v2

• Balmford, A., Ball, T. S., Balmford, B., et al. (2025). Time to fix the biodiversity leak. Science.  387,720-722. DOI:10.1126/science.adv8264

• Eyres, A., Ball, T.S., Dales, M., Swinfield, T., Arnell, A., Baisero, D., … Balmford, A. (2024). LIFE: A metric for quantitatively mapping the impact of land-cover change on global extinctions. Phil. Soc. Trans. B. doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0327

• Balmford A, Bateman IJ, EyresA, Swinfield T, Ball TS. (2025) Sustainable high-yield farming is essential for bending the curve ofbiodiversity loss. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 380:20230216. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0216